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Annual private sector regular average weekly earnings (AWE) growth was 6.0% in the three months to November, higher than expected in the November Report, but an indicator-based model of underlying pay growth was little changed on the quarter. The MPC was also monitoring the impact on growth and inflationary pressures from the measures announced in Autumn Budget 2024, and from geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty. Monetary policy had been guided by the need to squeeze remaining inflationary pressures out of the economy to achieve the 2% target both in a timely manner and on a lasting basis. Bank staff expected GDP growth to have been weaker at the end of the year than had been projected in the November 2024 Report.

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…and an indicator of market-based inflation compensation has trended down over 2024, though it remains above its pre-Covid average. DMP Survey respondents’ expectation for their own price inflation in a year’s time remained elevated at around 4%, however, and has edged up slightly in recent months. Consistent with that, Bank staff analysis suggests the developments in short-term household inflation expectations are broadly in line with what might be expected given developments in the wider economy.

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Google began in January 1996 as a research project by Larry Page and Sergey Brin while they were both PhD students at Stanford University in California, United States. The company has received criticism involving issues such as privacy concerns, tax avoidance, censorship, search neutrality, antitrust, and abuse of its monopoly position.

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Rising goods and energy price inflation have accounted for the recent rise in headline inflation, while services inflation has fallen. CPI inflation was 2.5% in December, slightly above the MPC’s 2% target but broadly in line with expectations in the November Report. Monetary policy would need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term had dissipated further. The Committee continued to consider a range of cases for how the past global shocks that drove up inflation may unwind, and therefore how persistent domestic inflationary pressures may be.

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Business surveys have suggested a smoother path for GDP growth in recent quarters. Although GDP growth has been more volatile than suggested by business surveys, underlying growth appears to have slowed since the middle of last year. Having grown solidly in the first half of the year, GDP growth was flat in 2024 Q3, 0.2 percentage points below the projection in the November Report. In line with the recovery in housing market activity, nominal house prices have continued to pick up. Banks responding to the 2024 Q4 Credit Conditions Survey also reported increased availability of secured lending to households, which was expected to continue into 2025 Q1. Consumer credit growth has moderated somewhat in recent months, to 6.5% in December, and is now broadly in line with its 2012–19 average.

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At the time of the February 2024 Report, the evidence suggested that there had been no significant drag on productivity due to the recent energy price shock.footnote Updated analysis continues to support this conclusion. In time, this may be reflected in the LFS data as they incorporate the latest National Population Projections. That said, alternative data sources imply stronger employment growth since mid-2021, which would also reduce measured productivity on a per worker basis. Mechanically this has resulted from moderate GDP growth of 0.9% being outpaced by much stronger growth in total hours worked. In addition, the impacts of the online casino australia recently increased rates of National Insurance contributions (see Box D), which were incorporated into the November 2024 forecast, are also expected to weigh on participation.

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